Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 19,981
2 New Jersey 18,813
3 Massachusetts 15,334
4 Rhode Island 15,191
5 District of Columbia 13,884
6 Connecticut 12,687
7 Delaware 10,618
8 Illinois 10,594
9 Maryland 10,363
10 Louisiana 10,171
11 Nebraska 8,715
12 Iowa 7,641
13 South Dakota 6,700
14 Mississippi 6,652
15 Michigan 6,638
16 Pennsylvania 6,537
17 Virginia 6,430
18 Indiana 6,152
19 Minnesota 5,447
20 Alabama 5,358
21 Georgia 5,227
22 Colorado 5,085
23 Arizona 5,084
24 New Mexico 4,695
25 Utah 4,602
26 Tennessee 4,531
27 North Carolina 4,315
28 Arkansas 4,280
29 North Dakota 4,073
30 Wisconsin 3,962
31 Kansas 3,952
32 California 3,938
33 New Hampshire 3,930
34 South Carolina 3,763
35 Nevada 3,673
36 Washington 3,621
37 Florida 3,599
38 Ohio 3,556
39 Texas 3,163
40 Kentucky 2,879
41 Missouri 2,722
42 Oklahoma 2,127
43 Maine 2,090
44 Idaho 1,942
45 Wyoming 1,864
46 Puerto Rico 1,844
47 Vermont 1,807
48 Oregon 1,381
49 West Virginia 1,295
50 Alaska 1,008
51 Montana 569
52 Hawaii 511

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 175
2 Alabama 174
3 Louisiana 156
4 Arkansas 151
5 South Carolina 142
6 North Carolina 120
7 Utah 111
8 Florida 98
9 Tennessee 84
10 Mississippi 79
11 Maryland 76
12 Georgia 72
13 California 70
14 South Dakota 70
15 Iowa 69
16 District of Columbia 68
17 Nevada 66
18 Texas 65
19 Virginia 65
20 Indiana 64
21 Nebraska 59
22 Delaware 57
23 Minnesota 53
24 Connecticut 51
25 New Mexico 50
26 Oklahoma 47
27 Illinois 46
28 Rhode Island 45
29 Washington 43
30 Kansas 41
31 Wisconsin 41
32 Kentucky 38
33 New York 38
34 North Dakota 37
35 Puerto Rico 36
36 New Jersey 35
37 Oregon 34
38 Missouri 32
39 Ohio 32
40 Massachusetts 30
41 Wyoming 29
42 Pennsylvania 28
43 Colorado 27
44 New Hampshire 23
45 Alaska 22
46 Idaho 22
47 Maine 22
48 Michigan 14
49 West Virginia 13
50 Montana 11
51 Hawaii 7
52 Vermont 4

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,575
2 New Jersey 1,427
3 Connecticut 1,179
4 Massachusetts 1,109
5 Rhode Island 803
6 District of Columbia 729
7 Louisiana 649
8 Michigan 603
9 Illinois 516
10 Pennsylvania 492
11 Maryland 487
12 Delaware 434
13 Indiana 361
14 Mississippi 300
15 Colorado 278
16 Minnesota 236
17 New Hampshire 235
18 Georgia 231
19 Ohio 220
20 Iowa 209
21 New Mexico 209
22 Virginia 181
23 Arizona 165
24 Washington 160
25 Alabama 157
26 Nevada 151
27 Missouri 145
28 Florida 136
29 California 129
30 Wisconsin 119
31 Kentucky 117
32 Nebraska 116
33 South Carolina 116
34 North Carolina 110
35 North Dakota 101
36 Oklahoma 90
37 Vermont 88
38 Kansas 84
39 South Dakota 84
40 Maine 75
41 Tennessee 69
42 Texas 69
43 Arkansas 60
44 Idaho 49
45 West Virginia 49
46 Puerto Rico 46
47 Utah 44
48 Oregon 42
49 Wyoming 31
50 Montana 17
51 Alaska 13
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 7
2 Massachusetts 5
3 Rhode Island 5
4 Connecticut 4
5 District of Columbia 4
6 Delaware 3
7 Arizona 2
8 Georgia 2
9 Maryland 2
10 New Mexico 2
11 New York 2
12 Pennsylvania 2
13 California 1
14 Illinois 1
15 Indiana 1
16 Iowa 1
17 Louisiana 1
18 Michigan 1
19 Minnesota 1
20 Mississippi 1
21 New Hampshire 1
22 Ohio 1
23 Alabama 0
24 Alaska 0
25 Arkansas 0
26 Colorado 0
27 Florida 0
28 Hawaii 0
29 Idaho 0
30 Kansas 0
31 Kentucky 0
32 Maine 0
33 Missouri 0
34 Montana 0
35 Nebraska 0
36 Nevada 0
37 North Carolina 0
38 North Dakota 0
39 Oklahoma 0
40 Oregon 0
41 Puerto Rico 0
42 South Carolina 0
43 South Dakota 0
44 Tennessee 0
45 Texas 0
46 Utah 0
47 Vermont 0
48 Virginia 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 129,210 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,347 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 86,937 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 81,295 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 76,397 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 10,351 235 92
Richland South Carolina 5,429 587 81
Orange California 2,758 1123 64
Pierce Washington 2,691 1152 63
York South Carolina 2,317 1292 58

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,547 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,246 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,048 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Northampton Virginia 2,306 5 99
Richland South Carolina 173 655 79
Davidson Tennessee 127 795 74
Pierce Washington 98 942 70
Orange California 70 1122 64
York South Carolina 36 1474 53

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons